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In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view.
Given that it’s Valentine’s Day, some of you may be feeling warm and fuzzy courtesy of a significant other. Of course, others might be married. But for those of you who are following the latest economic data, the warm fuzzy feeling may apply doubly. Consumer spending data could definitely give the impression all is right with the world if BofA’s Moynihan’s data applies across the board, “The bank’s retail customers are spending about 6% more money in the first 40 days of this year compared with the same period in 2024”. (Let’s go ahead and blame the weather/fires for the latest retail sales reading.)
Another week into Trump 2.0 and you’d be forgiven for starting to tune out some of the news around the administration. After all, nothing screams kabuki more than touting “yuge” concessions from the Canadian and Mexican governments that were already in the works… Admittedly it’s two birds with one stone (that was going to be thrown anyway) for the US’s neighbors, but it does make it hard to take the threat of tariffs seriously. That being said, while some of the spectacle is certainly theater, like a bullfight it does come with horns as markets and political actors react to the latest news.
If you’re wondering what the crashing sound is in the background, it’s the bull in the China shop discussed last week as the Trump Administration works up a full head of steam. Will it go through with 25% tariffs on the US’s neighbors? Is there going to be a giant sucking sound in some parts of the economy courtesy of a potential funding freeze on federal grants and loans? Will there be a squeeze in citrus prices due to missing workers in California? The age-old shoulder shrug of “time will tell” certainly applies, but some people aren’t taking the uncertainty sitting down.
Trying to understand the Global Economic Impacts of Trump’s Second Term. So far, he has signed more executive orders on his first day than the last ten presidents combined. As of this writing in the middle of the Friday trading day, US markets initially seem impressed, with the S&P reaching an all-time high earlier this week and the Nasdaq 100 and Solactive 200 both higher. There is a bit of pullback today, but we are higher for the week overall. And US markets aren’t alone, Japanese and European equities have had their best performance this year. Maybe Japan and Europe aren’t going to be affected by the Trump tariffs? Last time we looked, they made a whole lot of automobiles, but what do we know?
It may be only January, but this week, both markets and data appear to be running with the Mardi Gras slogan, “laissez les bons temps rouler!”. While they haven’t broken out the beads and the hurricanes/Sazeracs just yet, everything is coming up roses.
Ah! The start of the new year. The new calendar offers so much possibility! A moment of change that seems to come just as we have spent time following traditions and celebrating holidays that have managed to survive. It’s a comforting reminder that while “progress” is relentless, amid the seasonal ebb and flow there are still some things we can rely on. A missed Fed inflation and rates projection, a TFTD that is once again arriving after the end of the year (mea culpa encore), and… a return to the wisdom of Whitney Houston?
We would be the first to admit a tendency towards pedantry: that we enjoy a little definitional punctiliousness. Surely, we are not alone in being amused by then-President Clinton asking, “what the meaning of ’is’ is”. But rather than being a mark of a scholar, this kind of diving into minutiae is often as much a sign of sophistry as it is of sophistication. Case in point was the debate around the definition of “transitory”. It might seem intuitive that trees don’t grow to the sky, but Yellen and crew somehow wanted to argue that that was why they had in fact been right all along in their argument that Covid era inflation was “transitory”. Yes, Janet, you were right that, like all things, this too did pass.
Even in times of turmoil (see President Lincoln’s Thanksgiving Day Proclamation), fall is a time to give thanks. And what should we be more thankful for than the gift of shopping? Retail sales reflected “continued resilience in the American consumer” and one might think recent Fed surveys are indicative of a new sense of optimism? The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey’s headline index “shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years, and the six-month outlook showed that “firms remained optimistic about future conditions”. The Philadelphia Fed survey was not quite as ebullient in its reading of the current environment, the headline index dropping from 10.3 to -5.5 (a section headline drily noting “Most Current Indicators Soften”), but, on balance, the sense of optimism was palpable and mirrored the Empire Fed, (“Most Future Indicators Rise”) with the future a…
“Why is it people got so incensed about the reason why inflation might be happening?” Happy Halloween! Tis the season for ghouls, gremlins and zombies, so perhaps we should not be so surprised that even President Biden has gained a taste for flesh! (Though it’s not the first time?) We kid of course, but one might be forgiven for suspecting “Irish Alzheimer’s”, given the latest “garbage” gaffe/misstep. Of course, Trump is not one to miss an opportunity. This comes at an inopportune time as the election heats up with various election-related stories battling for headlines. Voter fraud! Early voting shenanigans! Election market manipulation! Some might joke that POTUS himself would be hard to pick out among the ranks of the undead (we would never stoop so low …), but the more intriguing zombie speculation is the election. It wouldn’t be the first time the lawyers have found ways to keep th…
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints.
One might have expected yesterday’s CPI data to be of significance for asset prices. As it happened the figures were interesting, with the inflation data surprising to the high side: marginally, but still a miss, while core CPI actually increased for the 2nd month. Hardly proof of resurgent inflation but notable in the context of a series which has been trending lower since Sep 2022. But asset prices didn’t seem to notice the miss. Perhaps that’s because policymakers hardly noticed it either. The quote above came from the NY Fed Williams yesterday, and seems to be representative of policymakers’ focus shifting from inflation to the labor market. So perhaps markets took that cue and paid more attention to the rather striking weekly claims figure (258k).
We were very sad to see that Warren Mosler has decided to take an extended break from posting on X. Mr Mosler has helped inform our views about the overall policy stance. Most of all, Mosler was right: tight monetary policy did not stop the economy, and those who bet on that lost. Fiscal was certainly a factor, although reasonable people might debate how much of a factor. But with Fed officials mostly of like mind in thinking it is time to cut rates (see quote above), the question we find ourselves asking is whether it is finally safe to bet against Mosler. Or, to put it another way, “Is the U.S. consumer tapped out?”.
“I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here” There is no verse in scripture that says “blessed be the dovish, for they shall fatten the sacred bull”. More’s the pity, because it would have been apt. James Macintosh seems to have noticed the same, but framed it slightly differently. Nothing says I love you to asset markets more than Fed rate cuts: the original PCA factor. And to be fair, the admiration appears to be mutual: Powell loves markets and markets love Powell. It’s nice to get positive feedback and it’s not like JP had to drag everyone screaming and kicking.
Call me superstitious, but some irrational part of me can’t help but think the disappointment surrounding the Nvidia results had wider significance. Like Mary Poppins leaving when the wind changes, sometimes it’s something mundane which, with the benefit of hindsight, signals a shift in sentiment. It’s not that Nvidia never disappoints, but it has come to feel like that recently. And since the Nvidia results, stocks do seem to have lost their mojo, in marked contrast to bonds.
As USDJPY probes back towards the lows of its “liftshaft” experience in early August, longer dated implied volatility is on the rise and skew favours puts over calls even more than before.
The Nvidia results were eagerly awaited. This was entirely natural as Nvidia’s performance accounts for about 1/3 of the YtD gains on the S&P500. However, the results were not well received, which might be considered puzzling given Nvidia’s quarterly numbers met or beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure. The problem was not the numbers but what was expected: the “whisper” number. Nvidia investors have grown accustomed to blowout quarters, and these latest numbers were not blowouts.
Now that the “giant global margin call” appears to have run its course, global equity markets were free to celebrate successfully navigating the potential banana skin that was US inflation data (both CPI and PPI). Inflation is tamed (at least till next month) with only the irritating exception of the shelter components (again!) and those pesky insurance premiums. Turns out that inflation has a long tail: higher auto prices beget higher insurance premiums, and that’s without considering the impact of recent hail storms. That said perhaps we should count our blessings. Both headline CPI and PPI beat (i.e., were lower than) the consensus by 0.1%, which led some economists to point to a core PCE deflator figure below the Fed’s 2% target: good enough for stocks to start celebrating a September rate cut.
It’s possible to read too much into things. Consider it a flaw in our nature. But when we are told the “Worst of market sell-off might be over but hold on tight”, we can’t help but wonder about the hedged language. After all, if Goldman sees recent price action as prompted by a “giant global margin call”, surely the sell-off is an opportunity? Apparently not, as the GS note in question suggested that the flows they have seen were not consistent with “a ton of selling”. Is this diagnostically useful, and if so, in what way? If forced to offer an opinion (and we are), we would agree with GS that volumes have certainly not been indicative of capitulation. In fact, recent volatility might be better thought of as evidence of preternaturally low levels of liquidity. That in itself begs the question of why liquidity is so poor. August doldrums, or evidence of a Potemkin market?
Last week, we flagged Bill Dudley’s abrupt change of mind: he now advocates immediate rate cuts. One might be forgiven for suspecting Bill had spent the week lobbying his old colleagues because the July 31st FOMC statement, and J Powell’s subsequent presser gave rates markets quite the boost. Of course, there were the usual Powell caveats: “If we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly - or more or less in line with expectations - growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with its current condition, then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting”. But judging from SOFR pricing, the market took Powell’s caveats as mere teasing. Powell’s presser comments suggested maybe 50bps of cuts by year-end, but Dec 25 SOFR pricing suggests at least 75bps.