Filtered by FX — clear
Newsletter
13 February 2025
· Jon Webb
Our FX systems started the year with ashort USD bias (against the general consensus for a stronger USD). For the first three weeks this bias worked well as fears of blanket US tariffs did not materialize, however, in the final week of January, tariffs were announced on Mexico, Canada and China leading to some renewed USD strength. Nevertheless, so far, the measures that have been taken (with some already suspended for now) have not been as bad as feared. Looking forward to this month, we note the signals are more mixed for the USD though our hedge ratios remain negative USD for the largest currencies: EUR, GBP and JPY.
Insight
24 January 2025
· Jon Webb
Trying to understand the Global Economic Impacts of Trump’s Second Term. So far, he has signed more executive orders on his first day than the last ten presidents combined. As of this writing in the middle of the Friday trading day, US markets initially seem impressed, with the S&P reaching an all-time high earlier this week and the Nasdaq 100 and Solactive 200 both higher. There is a bit of pullback today, but we are higher for the week overall. And US markets aren’t alone, Japanese and European equities have had their best performance this year. Maybe Japan and Europe aren’t going to be affected by the Trump tariffs? Last time we looked, they made a whole lot of automobiles, but what do we know?
Newsletter
17 January 2025
· Jon Webb
Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January. In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term. Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained.
Newsletter
4 November 2024
· Jon Webb
The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY. We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY. Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris.
Insight
5 September 2024
· Jon Webb
As USDJPY probes back towards the lows of its “liftshaft” experience in early August, longer dated implied volatility is on the rise and skew favours puts over calls even more than before.
Insight
22 May 2024
· Jon Webb
Sell EURGBP above 0.85. First target 0.82. Longer term targets sub-0.80. Stop above 0.86.
Insight
25 April 2024
· Jon Webb
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide, we wanted to share Julian's latest interview with Ted Oakley, Managing Partner at Oxbow Advisors. In this engaging discussion, Julian addresses economic, stock market, and extreme political instability. In this engaging discussion, Julian addresses economic, stock market, and extreme political instability.
Insight
16 April 2024
· Jon Webb
We are delighted to announce that C8 Technologies is launching a systematic FX hedging platform which helps businesses easily and effectively manage their currency exposures. C8 Hedge offers corporate treasurers and investment professionals precise guidance for actively and optimally managing their foreign exchange exposures across multiple currencies, using intuitive and simple to use online tools.
Insight
5 April 2024
· Jon Webb
US growth dynamics remain stronger than many expected. The Federal Reserve seem hell bent on cutting rates but are getting cold comfort from recent data releases, however they attempt to spin it. Recent “off-message” comments from Fed officials underline that risk. If we continue in this vein, expect US rates to ratchet higher and bonds to remain vulnerable.